Article

Article title ONE-FACTORIAL REGRESSION MODELS OF FORECASTING OF THE POWER CONSUMPTION OF THE INDUSTRIAL ENTERPRISES
Authors G.S. Lapinsky, Z.R. Mirantsaev
Section SECTION IV. COMPUTER TECHNOLOGIES IN FORMATION, MANAGEMENT AND MEDICINE
Month, Year 05, 2013 @en
Index UDC 62-52, Л 24
DOI
Abstract In article the comparative analysis of one-factorial regression models of forecasts of production requirements of the industrial enterprises used by drawing up on the example of consumption of electric energy is given in the territory of the Republic of North Ossetia-Alania. Additive and multiplicative models with linear, logarithmic and polynomial trends are considered. The assessment of accuracy of models is given, Fischer"s criterion for check of adequacy of models is calculated, and averages relatives errors of predicting models are also calculated. On the basis of the chosen model the monthly forecast of power consumption by the industrial enterprises for a year forward is constructed, confidential intervals and Darbina-Watson"s criterion are calculated. The algorithm of procedure of a choice of one-factorial regression model for drawing up the forecast is given.

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Keywords Additive model; multiplicate model; linear trend; logarithmic trend; exponential trend; seasonal component; confidential interval.
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