INTELLIGENT METHODS OF PARAMETRIC FORECASTING AND OPTIMIZATION OF UAV TRAJECTORIES

Abstract

This paper examines the problem of intelligent parametric forecasting and trajectory optimization for unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) using evolutionary algorithms and machine learning methods. The relevance of the study stems from the multi-criteria and high complexity of UAS trajectory generation processes, as well as the need for accurate and timely assessment of its flight parameters. This is particularly important for ensuring the reliability, safety, and efficient performance of flight missions in UAS operating conditions, including scenarios related to the operation of critical infrastructure facilities. The objective of the study is to improve the accuracy of trajectory parameter diagnostics and the reliability of parametric forecasting of UAS trajectories under conditions of uncertainty and the multi-criteria nature of the problem. The paper proposes a hybrid approach incorporating a genetic algorithm (GA), a particle swarm algorithm (PSO), and an XGBoost machine learning model that provides adaptive assessment of the quality of the generated solutions. A computational software package has been implemented, including selection, recombination, mutation, and elite inheritance mechanisms, as well as a machine learning module for validating route trajectories and associated parameters. A computational experiment was conducted, which compared the effectiveness of GA and PSO under various operating scenarios. Testing was performed on industry-specific datasets with varying numbers of iterations. The computational experiment revealed the advantage of the genetic algorithm, namely, a 14–17% improvement in the quality of design solutions. The results of the study demonstrate high adaptability and practical applicability in modeling, parametric forecasting, and routing tasks, and also indicate the potential for integration with intelligent UAS navigation and monitoring systems. The article's materials are of practical interest to specialists in the field of UAS development and operation, as well as to researchers working on multi-criteria route planning, parametric forecasting, and improving the reliability of UAS operations.