METHODOLOGY FOR CONSTRUCTING ROADMAPS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF TECHNOLOGICAL TRENDS AND TECHNOLOGIES UNDER CONDITIONS OF RESTRICTIONS
Abstract
Under modern conditions when the transfer to the sixth waves of innovation is realized and the
global competition is escalated the problem of technological parity and technological superiority becomes
very important for various levels of review. The main way to solve this problem is to develop the
science investigations and first of all – to develop the investigations in the area of creation the new and
effective technologies everywhere. The roadmap procedure for technological trends and technologies
development under information incompleteness and fuzziness is represented. The procedure provides the
carrying of analysis for world technological trends in the set of predetermined areas, the definition of
possible technological development alternatives and the strategy for technological parity and technological
superiority achievement under predetermined restrictions. The realization of the procedures proposed
allows to determine the strategy to get the technological parity for various levels of review as well as to
form the list for technological trends to insure the technological superiority. It is determined that the road
maps methodology development for technological trends and technologies under restrictions must include:
1. The development analyses of the worldwide technological trends for the predetermined subject areas
in the national (namely in Russia), branch and corporativ levels. 2. The analyses and construction of the
strategy for support the technological priority and technological superiority under existing restrictions.
In difference of other investigations the exist methodology submitted permits: – to build the quantity forecasts
estimations for technological trends and compiling technologies on the base of future events constructing;
– to support the possibilities to construct the roadmaps for technological trends and technologies
on national, branch and corporation levels under the restrictions. As a bases of the investigation
made on the methodology creation the system approach is used when the strategy for technological trends
and technologies roadmaps construction is considered as a whole complex of associated elements made to
solve the tasks put. As a result of the supposed procedure realization there is a chance to define: – the
organization strategy to reach the technological parity; – the time to reach the parity; – the methodology
list to form the technological trends to reach the technological superiority.
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