METHODOLOGY FOR ANALYZING THE DEVELOPMENT OF EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES AND TECHNOLOGICAL FRONTS
Abstract
The speed of changes in the innovative development of the economy is constantly increasing,
especially in high-tech areas. In this regard, the task of conducting continuous dynamic monitoring,
identifying significant technologies and strategic analysis of the directions of development of
science and technology becomes extremely important. Currently, this work is not automated and
requires significant financial and time costs. The paper analyzes the main problems of building
monitoring procedures and identifying emerging technologies, the formation and development of
technological trends. The solution of the tasks of automating the process of determining trends is
associated with the development and use of formalized procedures and statistical methods for the
study of texts of scientific publications, patents and collections of scientific and technological documents.
However, due to the high dynamics of changes, bibliometric and linguistic analysis is not
enough to form development trends. The implementation of a new technological development may
take several years. In this regard, it is necessary that by the time the development is completed, the
project goal remains relevant, and the achieved parameters have competitive advantages. Achieving
the set tasks is impossible without understanding the evolution of technologies and technical
solutions over time and forecasting their new quality parameters. The available methods of assessing
and forecasting the level of technology development do not consider, as a rule, the high
dynamics of the formation of new trajectories of technology development and their interrelationships
in technological trends. It is necessary to create information and analytical data processing
systems that will allow technologies to be isolated from open or closed sources and interpreted.
In this paper, the method of identifying emerging technologies and the formation of technological
trends is considered. The methodology takes into account the presence of trend characteristics, the
interrelationships of individual technologies and the type of trend. The main stages of the formation
of new technologies are determined. The characteristics and main criteria of the new trend
are highlighted. A classification of the types of new trends is proposed. For the given subject areas,
an algorithm for the formation and analysis of the characteristics of the technological trend is
proposed.
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