METHODOLOGY FOR FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF TECHNOLOGICAL TRENDS AND BUILDING ROAD MAP ON THE BASIS OF CONSTRUCTING FUTURE EVENTS
Abstract
The innovation economics development, particularly in the high technology sphere, stimulates
the new ways of solving for strategic analyses, forecasting and priorities estimation tasks.
These tasks provide the forming of perspective research plans. Existing methods for assessing and
forecasting the level of technology development are based on the development of a structural and functional concept of the subject area under study, its structural decomposition (top-down) and expert
assessment over a given time horizon. This approach has several significant drawbacks as it
does not consider globalization and the high dynamics of forming new trajectories of technology
development and technological fronts from bottom to top. In addition, the task of prioritizing, timing,
and cost estimation of technology development encounters significant difficulties as it requires experts
to provide specific numerical assessments. Based on the results obtained by the authors through
research and development in the considered area, this work proposes a methodology for forecasting
technological trends and constructing roadmaps, which provides: – formation of a quantitative forecast
assessment of the development of technological trends and constituent technologies, taking into
account their connectivity, based on the construction of future events; – construction of roadmaps for
the development of technological trends and technologies for a given subject area and group of subject
areas; – conducting forecast assessments of the time required to implement technologies and
technological trends in conditions of uncertainty and incomplete information, absence of validated
quantitative assessments and prototypes. The methodology is based on the procedure for forecasting
the development of technological trends and technologies based on the transition from a logical
graph of technological trends to a dynamic graph. The methodology provides a quantitative forecast
assessment of the development of technological trends and their constituent technologies: – in conditions
of uncertainty and incomplete information; – in the absence of technology prototypes. At the
same time, possible interconnections between individual technologies and technological trends
during development are taken into account.
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