ON TECHNOLOGY TRENDS AND TECHNOLOGY PRIORITIES ENTIMATION METHODS RESEARCH
Abstract
On the base of global technological tendencies analysis the needs for strategic analysis
methods and technological trends are defined. It is pointed out that the effective task decision must
be complex and must support information, logical and methodical interconnection for the following
stages: the monitoring, the technological trends forming and structuring and the technological
and technologies priorities estimation. The main complexity in the priorities estimation is in getting
quantity estimates, criterion interaction and opposite connections in technological trends
analyses. The general approach to solve the problem is suggested. The logical interconnected
procedure for priorities estimation is proposed based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and
the analytic nets method (ANM). The formal scheme to transfer from a technological trend of a
subject sphere for transformed dynamic technology graph is designed. The technologies join the
real as well as the virtual parts. The procedure for criteria forming is discussed. The detailed description
for trends priorities estimation is presented. The main attention is made to criteria and
technologies interconnection problem. The AHP and ANM using to decide estimation problems is
discussed. The suggested procedure practical realization is described be means of an example.
The example reflects the main problems of quantity estimation for technological trends priorities such as criteria and technologies interconnection. The procedure constructed now is used for the
strategic analysis and estimation for innovation development of high technologies enterprises,
road cards making and technological forecasting in various spheres.
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