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• ANALYSIS OF THE POSSIBILITY OF USING BIG LANGUAGE MODELS FOR MONITORING TECHNOLOGICAL TRENDS AND DETERMINING DIRECTIONS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH-TECH ENTERPRISES

  А. М. Belevtsev , А.А. Belevtsev , V.А. Balyberdin

  47-58

  2025-12-30

  Abstract ▼

  In modern times some foreign countries pay a great attention  at the development and using in military field the netcentric conception of control (NCC). The conception defines the architecture of operations as a composition of three network structures:  reconnaissance, information control and  destruction. The analyses made show that the  great part  in the network structure of reconnaissance play the radar systems and complexes  (RSC).  It is pointed out that at present the great efforts are made to realize a new quality RSC on the base of new technologies in nanoelectronics, MEMS/NEMS, nanomaterials, large information networks. That is why the predictions for ways to new technologies  constructing of perspective RSC for military objectives is of great interest. The paper deals with some problems connected to the  estimations certainty  when technological trends and technologies are  analyzed. The study is made on the example of radar complexes (RC) in NSS. The procedure for hierarchy criterions system forming is suggested, the bystages priority vector analyses are made on the example of  technological trends and technologies developments for sensor greed of NSS. It has been known that the availability of  the criterions interrelations reciprocal of the  technological trends can made errors for estimations constructed: in vectors priorities estimations; in  roadcarts constructing for radar part of NSS. It is recognized that to raise the certainty  requires the priorities estimation in the common schematic  for technological trends and technologies on the base of analytical networks method.

• METHODOLOGY FOR CONSTRUCTING ROADMAPS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF TECHNOLOGICAL TRENDS AND TECHNOLOGIES UNDER CONDITIONS OF RESTRICTIONS

  А.А. Belevtsev, А.М. Belevtsev, V.А. Balyberdin

  2024-05-28

  Abstract ▼

  Under modern conditions when the transfer to the sixth waves of innovation is realized and the
  global competition is escalated the problem of technological parity and technological superiority becomes
  very important for various levels of review. The main way to solve this problem is to develop the
  science investigations and first of all – to develop the investigations in the area of creation the new and
  effective technologies everywhere. The roadmap procedure for technological trends and technologies
  development under information incompleteness and fuzziness is represented. The procedure provides the
  carrying of analysis for world technological trends in the set of predetermined areas, the definition of
  possible technological development alternatives and the strategy for technological parity and technological
  superiority achievement under predetermined restrictions. The realization of the procedures proposed
  allows to determine the strategy to get the technological parity for various levels of review as well as to
  form the list for technological trends to insure the technological superiority. It is determined that the road
  maps methodology development for technological trends and technologies under restrictions must include:
  1. The development analyses of the worldwide technological trends for the predetermined subject areas
  in the national (namely in Russia), branch and corporativ levels. 2. The analyses and construction of the
  strategy for support the technological priority and technological superiority under existing restrictions.
  In difference of other investigations the exist methodology submitted permits: – to build the quantity forecasts
  estimations for technological trends and compiling technologies on the base of future events constructing;
  – to support the possibilities to construct the roadmaps for technological trends and technologies
  on national, branch and corporation levels under the restrictions. As a bases of the investigation
  made on the methodology creation the system approach is used when the strategy for technological trends
  and technologies roadmaps construction is considered as a whole complex of associated elements made to
  solve the tasks put. As a result of the supposed procedure realization there is a chance to define: – the
  organization strategy to reach the technological parity; – the time to reach the parity; – the methodology
  list to form the technological trends to reach the technological superiority.

• METHODOLOGY FOR ANALYZING THE DEVELOPMENT OF EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES AND TECHNOLOGICAL FRONTS

  М. S. Anferova, А. М. Belevtsev, А. А. Belevtsev

  2023-10-23

  Abstract ▼

  The speed of changes in the innovative development of the economy is constantly increasing,
  especially in high-tech areas. In this regard, the task of conducting continuous dynamic monitoring,
  identifying significant technologies and strategic analysis of the directions of development of
  science and technology becomes extremely important. Currently, this work is not automated and
  requires significant financial and time costs. The paper analyzes the main problems of building
  monitoring procedures and identifying emerging technologies, the formation and development of
  technological trends. The solution of the tasks of automating the process of determining trends is
  associated with the development and use of formalized procedures and statistical methods for the
  study of texts of scientific publications, patents and collections of scientific and technological documents.
  However, due to the high dynamics of changes, bibliometric and linguistic analysis is not
  enough to form development trends. The implementation of a new technological development may
  take several years. In this regard, it is necessary that by the time the development is completed, the
  project goal remains relevant, and the achieved parameters have competitive advantages. Achieving
  the set tasks is impossible without understanding the evolution of technologies and technical
  solutions over time and forecasting their new quality parameters. The available methods of assessing
  and forecasting the level of technology development do not consider, as a rule, the high
  dynamics of the formation of new trajectories of technology development and their interrelationships
  in technological trends. It is necessary to create information and analytical data processing
  systems that will allow technologies to be isolated from open or closed sources and interpreted.
  In this paper, the method of identifying emerging technologies and the formation of technological
  trends is considered. The methodology takes into account the presence of trend characteristics, the
  interrelationships of individual technologies and the type of trend. The main stages of the formation
  of new technologies are determined. The characteristics and main criteria of the new trend
  are highlighted. A classification of the types of new trends is proposed. For the given subject areas,
  an algorithm for the formation and analysis of the characteristics of the technological trend is
  proposed.

• ON TECHNOLOGY TRENDS AND TECHNOLOGY PRIORITIES ENTIMATION METHODS RESEARCH

  А.А. Belevtsev, А. М. Belevtsev, V.А. Balyberdin

  2023-02-27

  Abstract ▼

  On the base of global technological tendencies analysis the needs for strategic analysis
  methods and technological trends are defined. It is pointed out that the effective task decision must
  be complex and must support information, logical and methodical interconnection for the following
  stages: the monitoring, the technological trends forming and structuring and the technological
  and technologies priorities estimation. The main complexity in the priorities estimation is in getting
  quantity estimates, criterion interaction and opposite connections in technological trends
  analyses. The general approach to solve the problem is suggested. The logical interconnected
  procedure for priorities estimation is proposed based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and
  the analytic nets method (ANM). The formal scheme to transfer from a technological trend of a
  subject sphere for transformed dynamic technology graph is designed. The technologies join the
  real as well as the virtual parts. The procedure for criteria forming is discussed. The detailed description
  for trends priorities estimation is presented. The main attention is made to criteria and
  technologies interconnection problem. The AHP and ANM using to decide estimation problems is
  discussed. The suggested procedure practical realization is described be means of an example.
  The example reflects the main problems of quantity estimation for technological trends priorities such as criteria and technologies interconnection. The procedure constructed now is used for the
  strategic analysis and estimation for innovation development of high technologies enterprises,
  road cards making and technological forecasting in various spheres.

• DEVELOPMENT OF ALGORITHMS OF INTELLIGENT SERVICE FOR INFORMATION SEARCH AND MONITORING

  M. S. Anferova, A. M. Belevtsev

  2021-08-11

  Abstract ▼

  This paper describes the problem of strategic analysis and the choice of directions for the development
  of an innovative enterprise in the conditions of transition to the 6th technological order and
  industry 4.0. In these conditions, search and analytical processing of information cannot be fully performed
  without the use of automated information and analytical systems, including those based on artificial
  intelligence. During the analysis, the main priority functions that the developed services should
  provide were identified. The main difficulties in the development of these services are identified, such as:
  pre-processing of data and automated checking of the relevance of databases. To effectively solve thetasks set, the intelligent monitoring and information retrieval service should use an integrated approach,
  taking into account the effectiveness of applying methods for individual subtasks, and ensure high efficiency
  of implementing all stages of the intelligent monitoring procedure. In this regard, this paper describes
  not only the development of a general intelligent search algorithm, but also individual block
  algorithms necessary to ensure the priority functions of the service being developed. The paper presents
  the following algorithms: an information search algorithm necessary to solve the problem of full-text
  search of documents within the database of information resources of the information and analytical
  complex; an algorithm for the procedure for entering new documents; an algorithm for pre-processing
  data that includes stemming and removing punctuation marks for subsequent text analysis; an algorithm
  for evaluating the ranking and relevance of information, including vectorization of documents; an algorithm
  for clustering information search results based on the Kohonen neural network; the algorithm for
  checking the relevance of information is to check whether the local copy of the document corresponds to
  the current version on the source's web resource. The Python programming language for the implementation
  of the presented algorithm is proposed and justified. The system provides automated continuous
  monitoring with a high frequency of sending a request without the participation of an operator, which
  will increase the quality and efficiency of information search in conditions of a large volume of unstructured
  information.

• ANALYSIS OF REQUIREMENTS AND DEVELOPMENT OF ALGORITHMS FOR INTELLIGENT MONITORING SERVICES

  М.S. Anferova, А.М. Belevtsev

  2022-08-09

  Abstract ▼

  The paper considers the problems of strategic analysis and the choice of directions for the development
  of innovative enterprises in the conditions of transition to the 6th technological order and industry
  4.0. The main levels of analysis are determined. The objectives of the strategic analysis are outlined
  based on the scale of the research being conducted. The analysis tasks are highlighted, the solution of
  which will allow achieving the set goals. The complexity of solving global monitoring tasks, which are
  caused by a large volume of heterogeneous and unstructured information, is shown. In these conditions,
  thematic search and analytical processing of information cannot be performed without the use of automated information and analytical systems and the creation of search services based on artificial intelligence.
  A general monitoring procedure is proposed. The main stages of monitoring technological trends
  are defined, the tasks to be solved within a specific stage and the planned result are shown. Based on the
  general monitoring procedure, the main priority functions that the developed services should have are
  determined. As well as the problems of their development and structuring of the received information in
  the form of information objects and clustering of documents. In contrast to the well-known global monitoring
  systems, in which the search is based on indicators: an increase in the use of keywords, an increase
  in the number of new authors, quoting works from related fields. Algorithms are proposed that
  provide the definition of reference topics, assessment of ranking and relevance of information. The description
  of the algorithms is given on the example of creating a summary information table, with the
  help of which the interrelationships of documents of scientific and technological development in each
  direction of monitoring and the search for specific documents in the database are formed. The construction
  of search services based on the presented algorithms will ensure the allocation of reference topics
  of documents, provide more reliable results of clustering of unstructured information and the formation
  of scientific and technological trends in information and analytical complexes. To implement the algorithm,
  it is proposed to use the Python programming language. The implementation of these algorithms
  will improve the quality and efficiency of information retrieval in conditions of a large volume of unstructured
  information.

• METHODOLOGY FOR EVALUATION AND SELECTION OF PLM-SYSTEMS IN THE DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION OF A MACHINE-BUILDING ENTERPRISE

  P.А. Voronin, А.М. Belevtsev, F.G. Sadreev

  6-15

  2022-11-01

  Abstract ▼

  As part of the transition to the sixth technological order, the question of effective implementation of the digital transformation of the enterprise is acute for industrial enterprises. To do this, enterprises need to ensure the transition to process management, automate business processes and integrate all processes, applications and data on a single platform. There is a problem of choosing a way to combine information flows between various software tools in the enterprise, one of the solutions is the use of a PLM system. With a discrete type of production, their use is difficult due to the large number of software solutions in the main, organizational, supporting and business development processes. In this regard, it is necessary to determine the optimal system that would meet all the necessary criteria for building a single platform for a "seamless" production process. There are a large number of PLM systems on the market that implement a certain number of functional appointments. The choice of a PLM system should be based on the satisfaction of an interconnected set of enterprise requirements, which are determined based on business processes. This will eliminate most unsuitable software solutions. At the same time, a PLM system that has the widest functionality may not meet the requirements for creating a system for ensuring integration with business process automation systems, as well as economic, social, political and other requirements. Therefore, an individual list of criteria is compiled for each enterprise in accordance with the field of activity, the type of production, the availability of various software, the existing level of automation and other parameters. The article proposes a methodology for choosing PLM systems for a radio-electronic engineering enterprise, based on the analysis of business processes and determining the requirements of the enterprise, monitoring and determining the functional purposes of PLM systems and determining the optimal option based on the hierarchy analysis method. Obtaining an integrated assessment of certain criteria and software solutions options will allow an objective choice of the optimal PLM system for a particular enterprise. The use of the methodology will speed up and improve the quality of the PLM system selection process for a certain enterprise in the conditions of transition to the sixth technological order and industry 4.0.

• METHODOLOGY FOR DETERMINING AND ANALYZING THE TECHNICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF TECHNOLOGICAL TRENDS

  М.S. Anferova, А.М. Belevtsev, V. V. Dvoretskiy

  2025-01-30

  Abstract ▼

  The rapid growth of scientific knowledge and the ever-increasing volume of scientific publications
  pose serious challenges to identify new trends and understand the changing research landscape. The formation
  of technological trends is necessary for the development and construction of development
  roadmaps at the national, sectoral and corporate levels. The task of identifying technological trends is an
  important problem in the field of data analysis and machine learning. Well-known methods of analysis,
  including clustering by time factor, make it possible to form key phrases, but the task of forming trends,
  studying their characteristics and dynamics of their development does not currently have a satisfactory
  solution. The solution to this problem involves: – creating a methodology for moving from key phrases to
  directly naming new technological trends; – determination of the regularity of technology development in
  a given subject area; – determining the direction of future research. Solving these tasks will create an
  effective decision support tool, reduce the time to identify a trend, assess the dynamics of its development
  and build roadmaps. In the presented work, a new approach to the formation of technological trends is
  proposed. The method is based on machine learning algorithms and natural language processing methods
  and aims to overcome some of the limitations of traditional methods. In particular, the technique makes it
  possible to identify complex relationships between various scientific concepts and provides a more accurate
  and comprehensive way to identify trends. The analysis of methods and methods for identifying trends
  in scientific and technological development and their development based on keywords identified using a
  model using time clustering is carried out. An algorithm for identifying trends is proposed

• METHODOLOGY FOR FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF TECHNOLOGICAL TRENDS AND BUILDING ROAD MAP ON THE BASIS OF CONSTRUCTING FUTURE EVENTS

  А. А. Belevtsev, А. М., V.А. Balyberdin

  2023-08-14

  Abstract ▼

  The innovation economics development, particularly in the high technology sphere, stimulates
  the new ways of solving for strategic analyses, forecasting and priorities estimation tasks.
  These tasks provide the forming of perspective research plans. Existing methods for assessing and
  forecasting the level of technology development are based on the development of a structural and functional concept of the subject area under study, its structural decomposition (top-down) and expert
  assessment over a given time horizon. This approach has several significant drawbacks as it
  does not consider globalization and the high dynamics of forming new trajectories of technology
  development and technological fronts from bottom to top. In addition, the task of prioritizing, timing,
  and cost estimation of technology development encounters significant difficulties as it requires experts
  to provide specific numerical assessments. Based on the results obtained by the authors through
  research and development in the considered area, this work proposes a methodology for forecasting
  technological trends and constructing roadmaps, which provides: – formation of a quantitative forecast
  assessment of the development of technological trends and constituent technologies, taking into
  account their connectivity, based on the construction of future events; – construction of roadmaps for
  the development of technological trends and technologies for a given subject area and group of subject
  areas; – conducting forecast assessments of the time required to implement technologies and
  technological trends in conditions of uncertainty and incomplete information, absence of validated
  quantitative assessments and prototypes. The methodology is based on the procedure for forecasting
  the development of technological trends and technologies based on the transition from a logical
  graph of technological trends to a dynamic graph. The methodology provides a quantitative forecast
  assessment of the development of technological trends and their constituent technologies: – in conditions
  of uncertainty and incomplete information; – in the absence of technology prototypes. At the
  same time, possible interconnections between individual technologies and technological trends
  during development are taken into account.

• DEVELOPMENT OF A GENERAL ALGORITHM AND STRUCTURE OF AUTOMATED SYSTEM OF INFORMATION SUPPORT FOR A RADAR PROFILE ENTERPRISE

  P. А. Voronin, А.М. Belevtsev, S.S. Aleksandrova

  2023-06-07

  Abstract ▼

  The conditions of ever-growing competition require saving not only material or financial resources,
  but also intellectual, informational and temporary ones. Information technologies used at
  all stages of the product life cycle, from strategic analysis and production to modernization and
  disposal, play a special role in solving this problem. The development of modern information
  technologies, characterized by the desire to combine information resources, cooperation in the
  creation of information systems, information sharing, automation and regulation of enterprise
  processes, has played an important role in solving a group of tasks to save resources. The production
  of complex products today is unthinkable without providing them with information support at
  all stages of the life cycle. Information support is a whole range of issues, including automation of
  design processes, provision of technological processes of production, automation of management
  activities of enterprises, creation of electronic design and operational documentation, implementation
  of automated systems for ordering spare parts, etc. This article discusses the development of a
  general algorithm and structure of an automated information support system for a radar profile
  enterprise, which is an important step towards improving the efficiency and effectiveness of these
  enterprises. The development and implementation of such a system requires careful planning,
  design and testing, as well as continuous maintenance and support. However, the potential benefits of such a system are significant and can help enterprises working with radar profiles to remain
  competitive and successful in an increasingly complex and complex business environment. The
  document discusses the implementation of the system, including the various stages of design and
  development, testing and verification procedures.