METHODOLOGY FOR FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF TECHNOLOGICAL TRENDS AND BUILDING ROAD MAP ON THE BASIS OF CONSTRUCTING FUTURE EVENTS

Abstract

The innovation economics development, particularly in the high technology sphere, stimulates the new ways of solving for strategic analyses, forecasting and priorities estimation tasks. These tasks provide the forming of perspective research plans. Existing methods for assessing and forecasting the level of technology development are based on the development of a structural and functional concept of the subject area under study, its structural decomposition (top-down) and expert assessment over a given time horizon. This approach has several significant drawbacks as it does not consider globalization and the high dynamics of forming new trajectories of technology development and technological fronts from bottom to top. In addition, the task of prioritizing, timing, and cost estimation of technology development encounters significant difficulties as it requires experts to provide specific numerical assessments. Based on the results obtained by the authors through research and development in the considered area, this work proposes a methodology for forecasting technological trends and constructing roadmaps, which provides: – formation of a quantitative forecast assessment of the development of technological trends and constituent technologies, taking into account their connectivity, based on the construction of future events; – construction of roadmaps for the development of technological trends and technologies for a given subject area and group of subject areas; – conducting forecast assessments of the time required to implement technologies and technological trends in conditions of uncertainty and incomplete information, absence of validated quantitative assessments and prototypes. The methodology is based on the procedure for forecasting the development of technological trends and technologies based on the transition from a logical graph of technological trends to a dynamic graph. The methodology provides a quantitative forecast assessment of the development of technological trends and their constituent technologies: – in conditions of uncertainty and incomplete information; – in the absence of technology prototypes. At the same time, possible interconnections between individual technologies and technological trends during development are taken into account.