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• PREDICTION OF THE REMAINING USEFUL LIFE OF TECHNOLOGICAL EQUIPMENT USING THE DEEP LEARNING METHOD LSTM

  Y.А. Korablev

  277-288

  2025-11-10

  Abstract ▼

  The relevance of this study stems from the widespread implementation of predictive maintenance sys-tems. In modern industrial settings, accurately predicting the remaining service life (RUL) of critical equip-ment is particularly important. However, traditional data analysis methods demonstrate significant limita-tions when working with multivariate non-stationary time series characterized by high levels of noise and complex nonlinear dependencies. This leads to significant forecast errors, suboptimal repair planning, and an increased risk of sudden failures, which can cause significant economic losses and disrupt production processes. The goal of this study was to develop an improved RUL prediction model based on deep recur-rent neural networks. To achieve this goal, the following tasks were sequentially addressed: detailed analy-sis and multi-stage preprocessing of multivariate monitoring data; and design of a specialized two-layer LSTM architecture with integrated regularization mechanisms. The methods and approaches included the use of a unique methodology combining cascaded LSTM layers with normalization and dropout regulariza-tion. The model was trained on the NASA Turbofan Engine Degradation Simulation dataset using the state-of-the-art Adam optimizer and an early stopping strategy to prevent overfitting. Particular attention was paid to developing specialized preprocessing algorithms that effectively handle noisy time series and pre-serve long-term dependencies in the data. The main results of the experiments demonstrate high forecast accuracy. Detailed visual analysis of the time series confirmed the precise correspondence of the predicted values with the actual wear trajectories of mechanical components. The findings of the study demonstrate the high practical effectiveness of the developed model for solving current industrial forecasting problems. The feasibility of successful integration of the model into modern predictive maintenance systems for pro-cess equipment was established. The practical significance of the work lies in the potential for significant optimization of maintenance costs and minimization of the risk of critical failures. Prospects for further research include the development of hybrid architectures, the integration of attention mechanisms, and the adaptation of the model to various types of industrial equipment