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Izvestiya SFedU
Engineering sciences
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ISSN 1999-9429 print
ISSN 2311-3103 online
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  • METHODS FOR MINING CAUSUSITY FROM OBSERVATIONS IN ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

    М.Y. Georgi
    2023-08-14
    Abstract ▼

    The article discusses the importance of capturing causal relationships in machine learning
    for decision-making and evaluating real-world impact. It is noted that most current successes in
    machine learning are based on pattern recognition and correlation analysis; however, for more
    complex tasks, extracting causal relationships is necessary. The problems of explainability of predictions
    and causal understanding, even with the use of advanced machine learning techniques
    such as LIME, SHAP, TreeSHAP, DeepSHAP, and Shapley Flow, are recognized as fundamental
    obstacles in the development of artificial intelligence. The article briefly presents the main philosophical
    and mathematical concepts and definitions of causality, including counterfactuals, Bayesian
    networks, directed acyclic graphs, and causal formal inference. It concludes that the practical
    significance of data-based causal analysis consists in answering a priori formulated questions,
    which may reflect a hypothetical relationship between an event (a cause) and a second event (an
    effect), where the second event is a direct consequence of the first. A comparative analysis of the
    methods and main scenarios for using the Causal Discovery and Causal Inference frameworks is
    also carried out. Based on this analysis, it becomes possible to make assumptions about the causal
    structure underlying the investigated dataset and to use statistical methods to evaluate the strength
    and direction of such relationships. The article also discusses methods and algorithms of causal
    analysis and their application in real-world tasks. Representative methods are mentioned, such as
    constraint-based models, estimation-based models, functional causal models, (conditional) independence
    tests, evaluation functions, and other tools that can be used to solve the problem of extracting
    causal relationships from observational data. Most of these methods are implemented in
    open-source frameworks such as Microsoft DoWhy, Uber CausalML, causal-learn, Econ-ml, and
    many others, which facilitate causal analysis.

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