METHOD FOR REDUCING RISKS IN AGRICULTURE DUE TO HAILSTORMINGS

Abstract

The key problems of ensuring the conditions for the development of society are now becoming the adaptation of various fields of activity to climate change and the reduction of risks associated with dangerous weather events. The article discusses possible approaches to reducing the risks in agriculture associated with hail damage, touches upon the features of their information support. One method for solving this problem and a model for its implementation, developed in the framework of decision theory, are proposed. The method for solving the problem is classified by us as "passive" methods, which do not imply interference in the processes of formation of hail precipitation in clouds. As a risk mitigation mechanism, the proposed method uses the fact that the vulnerability of crops to hail is different for different crops. Accordingly, risk management is carried out by selecting the structure of agricultural production, taking into account the peculiarities of their vulnerability to this weather event, as well as the conditions imposed on the volume of agricultural production. The article discusses the main tasks that arise in the way of the practical use of this method. To analyze the effectiveness of the method for the production and economic conditions of the steppe climatic zone of the Kabardino-Balkarian Republic, model calculations were carried out. At the same time, to determine the possible states of hail processes, the frequency of hail fall (the number of days with hail in the territory under consideration per year) was used. Using the time series of this indicator for the period 1958-2018, the frequency of hail in the considered climatic zone was presented as a discrete random variable with a known distribution law. This made it possible to consider the problem of reducing losses in agriculture as a problem of decision making under risk. The results of model calculations showed the high efficiency of the method for reducing the losses of agriculture from hail damage. An important advantage of the method is that its practical use will be associated with insignificant costs