ОПТИМИЗАЦИЯ СТРУКТУРЫ СИСТЕМЫ ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЯ ЭНЕРГОПОТРЕБЛЕНИЯ С АТИПИЧНЫМ ХАРАКТЕРОМ ЭНЕРГОПОТРЕБЛЕНИЯ
Ключевые слова:
Кибер-физическая система, нейронная сеть, атипичный характер электропотребления, надежность систем энергоснабжения
Аннотация
Рассматривается создание интеллектуального устройство прогнозирования энергопотреб-
ления для потребителей с атипичным характером электропотребления, в зависимости от тре-
буемой точности прогноза, учитывающее кроме целевых параметров электросети (Р, Q) техно-
логические процессы предприятий, воздействующие факторы: социально-экономические (час су-
ток; день недели; порядковый номер дня в году; признак праздника или массовых событий d); ме-
теорологические: (ветро-холодовой индекс). Модель относится к интеллектуальным устройст-
вам для адаптивного прогнозирования режимов энергопотребления электросети на основе много-
слойной нейронной сети. Статья посвящена выбору оптимальной архитектуры нейросети (НС) и
метода ее обучения, обеспечивающих прогнозирование с наименьшей погрешностью. Синтезиро-
вана и протестирована многофакторная модель электропотребления на основе многослойной НС.
В рамках проведенного исследования построена НС модель, описывающая архитектуру кибер-
физической системы (КФС) прогнозирования электропотребления. Установлено, что для каждо-
го потребителя по причине значительных различий в характере энергопотребления необходимо
экспериментальным путем и подбирать параметры сети, с целью достижения минимальной по-
грешности прогнозирования. Показано, что при атипичном электропотреблении т.е. не повто-
ряющемся за периоды времени (час, день, неделя и т.д.) методы искусственного интеллекта и
глубокого машинного обучения являются эффективным инструментом решения слабо формали-
зуемых или не формализуемых задач. Разработанная модель имеет приемлемую точность (откло-
нение MSE до 15%). Для повышения точности прогноза необходимо проводить регулярное уточне-
ние модели и её настройку на фактическую ситуацию, учитывать новые аддитивные факторы,
оказывающие влияние на кривую электропотребления. Возможность использование данного уст-
ройства в системах технологического управления региональными сетевыми компаниями, состав-
ляющего основу иерархической автоматизированной информационно измерительной системы
контроля и учета электроэнергии, за счет учета и прогнозирования активной и реактивной мощ-
ности электропотребителей.
Литература
1. Postanovlenie Pravitel'stva RF ot 9 sentyabrya 2023 g. N 1473 "Ob utverzhdenii kompleksnoy
gosudarstvennoy programmy Rossiyskoy Federatsii "Energosberezhenie i povyshenie energeticheskoy
effektivnosti". Razmeshchen v SPS "Konsul'tant Plyus" [Decree of the Government of the Russian
ederation of September 9, 2023 N 1473 “On approval of the comprehensive state program of the
Russian ederation “Energy saving and increasing energy efficiency”. Posted in the ATP “ onsultant
Plus”. – https://base.garant.ru/407632842/]. Available at: https://base.garant.ru/407632842/.
2. Poluyanovich N.K. Montazh, naladka, ekspluatatsiya i remont sistem elektrosnabzheniya
promyshlennykh predpriyatiy. Dopushcheno UMO po obrazovaniyu v oblasti energetiki i
elektrotekhniki v kachestve uchebnogo posobiya dlya studentov vysshikh uchebnykh zavedeniy,
obuchayushchikhsya po spetsial'nosti 140610 – «Elektrooborudovanie i elektrokhozyaystvo
predpriyatiy, organizatsiy i uchrezhdeniy» napravleniya podgotovki 140600 – «Elektrotekhnika,
elektromekhanika i elektro-tekhnologii». Ser. uchebniki dlya vuzov. Spetsial'naya literature [Installation,
adjustment, operation and repair of power supply systems for industrial enterprises. The educational
educational institution for education in the field of energy and electrical engineering has been
approved as a teaching aid for students of higher educational institutions studying in the specialty
140610 – “Electrical equipment and electrical equipment of enterprises, organizations and institutions”
in the direction of training 140600 – “Electrical engineering, electromechanics and electrical technology”.
Ser. textbooks for universities. Special literature]. 3rd ed. Saint Petersburg, 2017.
3. Poluyanovich N.K., Tibeyko I.A. Ekspluatatsiya i remont sistem elektrosnabzheniya promyshlennykh
predpriyatiy [Operation and repair of power supply systems of industrial enterprises]. Taganrog, 2014.
4. Shurykin A.A., Poluyanovich N.K. Otsenka matematicheskogo ozhidaniya resursa izolyatsii v
zadachakh povysheniya nadezhnosti elektrooborudovaniya [Estimation of the mathematical expectation
of insulation life in problems of increasing the reliability of electrical equipment], Inzhenernyy
vestnik Dona [Engineering Bulletin of the Don], 2019, No. 2 (53), pp. 16.
5. Dubyago M.N., Poluyanovich N.K., Bur'kov D.V. Razrabotka metoda prognozirovaniya protsessa
stareniya izolyatsii na osnove termofluktuatsionnoy teorii chastichnykh razryadov [Development of a
method for predicting the aging process of insulation based on the thermal fluctuation theory of partial
discharges], Inzhenernyy vestnik Dona [Engineering Bulletin of the Don], 2017, No. 3 (46), pp. 26.
6. Serebryakov N.A., Khomutov S.O. Analiz sluchaynoy sostavlyayushchey vremennogo ryada
elektricheskoy nagruzki gruppy tochek postavki elektroenergii sel'khozproizvoditeley [Analysis of the
random component of the time series of electrical load of a group of electricity supply points for agricultural
producers], Vestnik Altayskogo gosudarstvennogo agrarnogo universiteta [Bulletin of the Altai
State Agrarian University], 2019, No. 5 (175), pp. 153-158.
7. Dubyago M.N., Poluyanovich N.K. Nerazrushayushchiy metod prognozirovaniya ostatochnogo resursa
silovykh kabel'nykh liniy [Non-destructive method for predicting the residual life of power cable
lines], Informatika, vychislitel'naya tekhnika i inzhenernoe obrazovanie [Informatics, computer technology
and engineering education], 2012, No. 1 (8), pp. 27-33.
8. Poluyanovich N.K., Dubyago M.N. Otsenka vozdeystvuyushchikh faktorov i prognozirovanie
elektropotrebleniya v regional'noy energosisteme s uchetom rezhima ee ekspluatatsii [Assessment of
influencing factors and forecasting of electricity consumption in the regional energy system taking into
account its operating mode], Izvestiya YuFU. Tekhnicheskie nauki [Izvestiya SFedU. Engineering
Sciences], 2022, No. 2 (226), pp. 31-46.
9. Rudakov E., Saakyan Yu., Nigmatulin B., Prokhorova N. Tsena rastochitel'nosti [The price of wastefulness],
Ekspert [Expert]. Iyun' 2008, pp. 24.
10. Bilalova A.I. Razrabotka modeley prognozirovaniya v sfere energosberezheniya [Development of
forecasting models in the field of energy saving], Sb. nauchnykh trudov mezhdunarodnoy nauchnotekhnicheskoy
konferentsii studentov i molodykh uchenykh «Molodezh'. Nauka. Tekhnologii (MNTK-
2017)» [Collection of scientific papers of the international scientific and technical conference of students
and young scientists “Youth. The science. Technologies (MNTK-2017)"]. Novosibirsk, 2017,
pp. 11-15.
11. Bilalova A.I. Statistika potrebleniya elektroenergii v g. Ul'yanovsk [Statistics of electricity consumption
in Ulyanovsk], Vuzovskaya nauka v sovremennykh usloviyakh: Sb. materialov 48-y nauchnotekhnicheskoy
konferentsii [University science in modern conditions: Collection of materials of the
48th scientific and technical conference]. Ul'yanovsk: UlGTU, 2013, pp. 15-18.
12. Domanov V.I., Bilalova A.I. Prognozirovanie ob"emov energopotrebleniya v zavisimosti ot iskhodnoy
informatsii [Forecasting the volume of energy consumption depending on the initial information],
Vestnik YuUrGU. Seriya «Energetika» [Bulletin of SUSU. Series "Energy"], 2016, Vol. 16, No. 2,
pp. 59-65. DOI: 10.14529/power160208.
13. Kudrin B.I., Mozgalin A.V. Metodika obespecheniya pochasovogo prognozirovaniya elektropotrebleniya
predpriyatiy s uchetom pogodnykh faktorov [Methodology for providing hourly forecasting of power consumption
of enterprises taking into account weather factors], Vestnik MEI [Bulletin of MPEI], 2007, No. 2,
pp.45-47.
14. Lemeshko B.Yu., Lemeshko S.B., Postovalov S.N., Chimitova E.V. Statisticheskiy analiz dannykh,
modelirovanie i issledovanie veroyatnostnykh zakonomernostey. Komp'yuternyy podkhod:
monografiya [Statistical data analysis, modeling and study of probabilistic patterns. Computer
approach: monograph]. Novosibirsk: Izd-vo NGTU, 2011, 888 p.
15. Spiridonova O.I. Struktura rynka elektroenergii: rynok forvardnykh kontraktov i stimuly k molchalivomu
sgovoru [The structure of the electricity market: the market for forward contracts and incentives for tacit collusion],
Sovremennaya konkurentsiya [Modern competition], 2010, No. 5, pp.15-24.
16. Belov K.D. Patent 115098 RF: MPK G06N 5/00. Mnogosloynaya neyronnaya set' [Patent 115098 RF:
MPK G06N 5/00Multilayer neural network]; applicant and patent holder: Belov K.D.
No. 2011139784/08; appl. 09.29.2011; publ. 04/20/2012; Bull. No. 11.
17. Khamitov R.N. Patent 169425 RF: MPK G06Q 10/06, G06N 5/00. Ustroystvo prognozirovaniya
elektropotrebleniya na osnove mnogosloynoy neyronnoy seti [Patent 169425 RF: IPC G06Q 10/06,
G06N 5/00. Device for forecasting power consumption based on a multilayer neural network]; applicant
and patent holder: Federal State Budgetary Educational Institution of Higher Education Omsk
State Technical University. – No. 2016145339; appl. 11/18/2016; publ. 03/17/2016.
18. Kachelaev O.V., Poluyanovich N.K., Dubyago M.N. Patent 222420 RF: MPK G06N 5/00, G06Q
10/06. Ustroystvo monitoringa i prognozirovaniya elektropotrebleniya v elektroenergeticheskikh
sistemakh na osnove neyronnykh struktur [Patent 222420 RF: IPC G06N 5/00, G06Q 10/06. Device
for monitoring and forecasting power consumption in electric power systems based on neural structures];
patent holder: Federal State Autonomous Educational Institution of Higher Education "Southern
Federal University". No. 2023126166; appl. October 12, 2023; publ. December 25, 2023.
19. Poluyanovich N.K., Azarov N.V., Dubyago M.N. Neyrokomp'yuternoe upravlenie propusknoy
sposobnost'yu kabel'nykh setey posredstvom ucheta i kontrolya ikh parametrov [Neurocomputer control
of the capacity of cable networks through accounting and control of their parameters], Izvestiya
YuFU. Tekhnicheskie nauki [Izvestiya SFedU. Engineering Sciences], 2022, No. 3 (227), pp. 84-100.
20. Poluyanovich N.K., Dubyago M.N. Upravlenie propusknoy sposobnost'yu energoseti v zadachakh
prognozirovaniya elektricheskoy nagruzki [Controlling the capacity of the energy network in problems
of forecasting electrical load], Izvestiya YuFU. Tekhnicheskie nauki [Izvestiya SFedU. Engineering
Sciences], 2022, No. 6 (230), pp. 30-43.
21. Poluyanovich N.K., Dubyago M.N. Algoritm obucheniya iskusstvennoy neyronnoy seti faktornogo
prognozirovaniya resursa izolyatsionnykh materialov silovykh kabel'nykh liniy [Algorithm for training an
artificial neural network for factor forecasting of the resource of insulating materials of power cable lines],
Izvestiya YuFU. Tekhnicheskie nauki [Izvestiya SFedU. Engineering Sciences], 2021, No. 2, pp. 59-73.
22. Dubyago M.N., Poluyanovich N.K. Sovershenstvovanie metodov diagnostiki i prognozirovaniya
elektroizolyatsionnykh materialov sistem energosnabzheniya: monografiya [Improving diagnostic
methods and forecasting of electrical insulating materials for power supply systems: monograph]. Rostov-
on-Don; Taganrog: Izd-vo YuFU, 2019, 192 p.
gosudarstvennoy programmy Rossiyskoy Federatsii "Energosberezhenie i povyshenie energeticheskoy
effektivnosti". Razmeshchen v SPS "Konsul'tant Plyus" [Decree of the Government of the Russian
ederation of September 9, 2023 N 1473 “On approval of the comprehensive state program of the
Russian ederation “Energy saving and increasing energy efficiency”. Posted in the ATP “ onsultant
Plus”. – https://base.garant.ru/407632842/]. Available at: https://base.garant.ru/407632842/.
2. Poluyanovich N.K. Montazh, naladka, ekspluatatsiya i remont sistem elektrosnabzheniya
promyshlennykh predpriyatiy. Dopushcheno UMO po obrazovaniyu v oblasti energetiki i
elektrotekhniki v kachestve uchebnogo posobiya dlya studentov vysshikh uchebnykh zavedeniy,
obuchayushchikhsya po spetsial'nosti 140610 – «Elektrooborudovanie i elektrokhozyaystvo
predpriyatiy, organizatsiy i uchrezhdeniy» napravleniya podgotovki 140600 – «Elektrotekhnika,
elektromekhanika i elektro-tekhnologii». Ser. uchebniki dlya vuzov. Spetsial'naya literature [Installation,
adjustment, operation and repair of power supply systems for industrial enterprises. The educational
educational institution for education in the field of energy and electrical engineering has been
approved as a teaching aid for students of higher educational institutions studying in the specialty
140610 – “Electrical equipment and electrical equipment of enterprises, organizations and institutions”
in the direction of training 140600 – “Electrical engineering, electromechanics and electrical technology”.
Ser. textbooks for universities. Special literature]. 3rd ed. Saint Petersburg, 2017.
3. Poluyanovich N.K., Tibeyko I.A. Ekspluatatsiya i remont sistem elektrosnabzheniya promyshlennykh
predpriyatiy [Operation and repair of power supply systems of industrial enterprises]. Taganrog, 2014.
4. Shurykin A.A., Poluyanovich N.K. Otsenka matematicheskogo ozhidaniya resursa izolyatsii v
zadachakh povysheniya nadezhnosti elektrooborudovaniya [Estimation of the mathematical expectation
of insulation life in problems of increasing the reliability of electrical equipment], Inzhenernyy
vestnik Dona [Engineering Bulletin of the Don], 2019, No. 2 (53), pp. 16.
5. Dubyago M.N., Poluyanovich N.K., Bur'kov D.V. Razrabotka metoda prognozirovaniya protsessa
stareniya izolyatsii na osnove termofluktuatsionnoy teorii chastichnykh razryadov [Development of a
method for predicting the aging process of insulation based on the thermal fluctuation theory of partial
discharges], Inzhenernyy vestnik Dona [Engineering Bulletin of the Don], 2017, No. 3 (46), pp. 26.
6. Serebryakov N.A., Khomutov S.O. Analiz sluchaynoy sostavlyayushchey vremennogo ryada
elektricheskoy nagruzki gruppy tochek postavki elektroenergii sel'khozproizvoditeley [Analysis of the
random component of the time series of electrical load of a group of electricity supply points for agricultural
producers], Vestnik Altayskogo gosudarstvennogo agrarnogo universiteta [Bulletin of the Altai
State Agrarian University], 2019, No. 5 (175), pp. 153-158.
7. Dubyago M.N., Poluyanovich N.K. Nerazrushayushchiy metod prognozirovaniya ostatochnogo resursa
silovykh kabel'nykh liniy [Non-destructive method for predicting the residual life of power cable
lines], Informatika, vychislitel'naya tekhnika i inzhenernoe obrazovanie [Informatics, computer technology
and engineering education], 2012, No. 1 (8), pp. 27-33.
8. Poluyanovich N.K., Dubyago M.N. Otsenka vozdeystvuyushchikh faktorov i prognozirovanie
elektropotrebleniya v regional'noy energosisteme s uchetom rezhima ee ekspluatatsii [Assessment of
influencing factors and forecasting of electricity consumption in the regional energy system taking into
account its operating mode], Izvestiya YuFU. Tekhnicheskie nauki [Izvestiya SFedU. Engineering
Sciences], 2022, No. 2 (226), pp. 31-46.
9. Rudakov E., Saakyan Yu., Nigmatulin B., Prokhorova N. Tsena rastochitel'nosti [The price of wastefulness],
Ekspert [Expert]. Iyun' 2008, pp. 24.
10. Bilalova A.I. Razrabotka modeley prognozirovaniya v sfere energosberezheniya [Development of
forecasting models in the field of energy saving], Sb. nauchnykh trudov mezhdunarodnoy nauchnotekhnicheskoy
konferentsii studentov i molodykh uchenykh «Molodezh'. Nauka. Tekhnologii (MNTK-
2017)» [Collection of scientific papers of the international scientific and technical conference of students
and young scientists “Youth. The science. Technologies (MNTK-2017)"]. Novosibirsk, 2017,
pp. 11-15.
11. Bilalova A.I. Statistika potrebleniya elektroenergii v g. Ul'yanovsk [Statistics of electricity consumption
in Ulyanovsk], Vuzovskaya nauka v sovremennykh usloviyakh: Sb. materialov 48-y nauchnotekhnicheskoy
konferentsii [University science in modern conditions: Collection of materials of the
48th scientific and technical conference]. Ul'yanovsk: UlGTU, 2013, pp. 15-18.
12. Domanov V.I., Bilalova A.I. Prognozirovanie ob"emov energopotrebleniya v zavisimosti ot iskhodnoy
informatsii [Forecasting the volume of energy consumption depending on the initial information],
Vestnik YuUrGU. Seriya «Energetika» [Bulletin of SUSU. Series "Energy"], 2016, Vol. 16, No. 2,
pp. 59-65. DOI: 10.14529/power160208.
13. Kudrin B.I., Mozgalin A.V. Metodika obespecheniya pochasovogo prognozirovaniya elektropotrebleniya
predpriyatiy s uchetom pogodnykh faktorov [Methodology for providing hourly forecasting of power consumption
of enterprises taking into account weather factors], Vestnik MEI [Bulletin of MPEI], 2007, No. 2,
pp.45-47.
14. Lemeshko B.Yu., Lemeshko S.B., Postovalov S.N., Chimitova E.V. Statisticheskiy analiz dannykh,
modelirovanie i issledovanie veroyatnostnykh zakonomernostey. Komp'yuternyy podkhod:
monografiya [Statistical data analysis, modeling and study of probabilistic patterns. Computer
approach: monograph]. Novosibirsk: Izd-vo NGTU, 2011, 888 p.
15. Spiridonova O.I. Struktura rynka elektroenergii: rynok forvardnykh kontraktov i stimuly k molchalivomu
sgovoru [The structure of the electricity market: the market for forward contracts and incentives for tacit collusion],
Sovremennaya konkurentsiya [Modern competition], 2010, No. 5, pp.15-24.
16. Belov K.D. Patent 115098 RF: MPK G06N 5/00. Mnogosloynaya neyronnaya set' [Patent 115098 RF:
MPK G06N 5/00Multilayer neural network]; applicant and patent holder: Belov K.D.
No. 2011139784/08; appl. 09.29.2011; publ. 04/20/2012; Bull. No. 11.
17. Khamitov R.N. Patent 169425 RF: MPK G06Q 10/06, G06N 5/00. Ustroystvo prognozirovaniya
elektropotrebleniya na osnove mnogosloynoy neyronnoy seti [Patent 169425 RF: IPC G06Q 10/06,
G06N 5/00. Device for forecasting power consumption based on a multilayer neural network]; applicant
and patent holder: Federal State Budgetary Educational Institution of Higher Education Omsk
State Technical University. – No. 2016145339; appl. 11/18/2016; publ. 03/17/2016.
18. Kachelaev O.V., Poluyanovich N.K., Dubyago M.N. Patent 222420 RF: MPK G06N 5/00, G06Q
10/06. Ustroystvo monitoringa i prognozirovaniya elektropotrebleniya v elektroenergeticheskikh
sistemakh na osnove neyronnykh struktur [Patent 222420 RF: IPC G06N 5/00, G06Q 10/06. Device
for monitoring and forecasting power consumption in electric power systems based on neural structures];
patent holder: Federal State Autonomous Educational Institution of Higher Education "Southern
Federal University". No. 2023126166; appl. October 12, 2023; publ. December 25, 2023.
19. Poluyanovich N.K., Azarov N.V., Dubyago M.N. Neyrokomp'yuternoe upravlenie propusknoy
sposobnost'yu kabel'nykh setey posredstvom ucheta i kontrolya ikh parametrov [Neurocomputer control
of the capacity of cable networks through accounting and control of their parameters], Izvestiya
YuFU. Tekhnicheskie nauki [Izvestiya SFedU. Engineering Sciences], 2022, No. 3 (227), pp. 84-100.
20. Poluyanovich N.K., Dubyago M.N. Upravlenie propusknoy sposobnost'yu energoseti v zadachakh
prognozirovaniya elektricheskoy nagruzki [Controlling the capacity of the energy network in problems
of forecasting electrical load], Izvestiya YuFU. Tekhnicheskie nauki [Izvestiya SFedU. Engineering
Sciences], 2022, No. 6 (230), pp. 30-43.
21. Poluyanovich N.K., Dubyago M.N. Algoritm obucheniya iskusstvennoy neyronnoy seti faktornogo
prognozirovaniya resursa izolyatsionnykh materialov silovykh kabel'nykh liniy [Algorithm for training an
artificial neural network for factor forecasting of the resource of insulating materials of power cable lines],
Izvestiya YuFU. Tekhnicheskie nauki [Izvestiya SFedU. Engineering Sciences], 2021, No. 2, pp. 59-73.
22. Dubyago M.N., Poluyanovich N.K. Sovershenstvovanie metodov diagnostiki i prognozirovaniya
elektroizolyatsionnykh materialov sistem energosnabzheniya: monografiya [Improving diagnostic
methods and forecasting of electrical insulating materials for power supply systems: monograph]. Rostov-
on-Don; Taganrog: Izd-vo YuFU, 2019, 192 p.
